CLEVELAND — With a 23-17 overtime win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, the Cleveland Browns moved to 4-7 on the season.
And while the Browns remain on the outside looking in of the current AFC playoff picture, Sunday's win was enough to keep Cleveland in contention with quarterback Deshaun Watson set to make his debut on Sunday.
According to advanced analytics website Five Thirty-Eight, the Browns currently have a seven percent chance of making the postseason. While those odds might not be great, they could also shift drastically in as little as two weeks with Watson, a three-time Pro Bowl selection, taking the reins of Cleveland's offense.
With just six weeks remaining in the 2022 season, the Browns' possible path to the playoffs is beginning to take shape. With that in mind, let's take a look at where Cleveland stands heading into their Week 13 matchup vs. the Houston Texans.
AFC North
AFC North standings
- Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
- Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
- Cleveland Browns (4-7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7)*
*Face the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football
While the Browns are currently 2-1 against division opponents with one game remaining against each of the other three teams in the AFC North, Cleveland remains in third place and finds itself a full three games behind both the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals coming out of Week 12. According to Five Thirty-Eight, the Browns have just a two percent chance of winning what would be their first divison title since 1989.
With Baltimore possessing one of the easiest remaining schedules in the NFL, it seems especially unlikely that Cleveland would be able to catch the Ravens. All things considered, the Browns' likeliest path to the playoffs would be via a Wild Card berth.
AFC Wild Card
Division Leaders
- Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)
- Miami Dolphins (8-3)
- Tennessee Titans (7-4)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
Wild Card
- Buffalo Bills (8-3)
- Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
- New York Jets (7-4)
- New England Patriots (6-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (6-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1)*
- Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7)
- Las Vegas Raiders (4-7)
- Cleveland Browns (4-7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7)
With the top-three non-division winners securing Wild Card spots, the Browns find themselves in the middle of a crowded AFC in which only two teams -- the Denver Broncos and the Texans -- have seemingly been eliminated from postseason contention. And as is the case in the AFC North, Cleveland has its work cut out for itself, trailing current Wild Card contender Buffalo by four games and the Bengals and New York Jets by three games.
What's more is that the Browns' have lost head-to-head tiebreakers against several of the teams currently in contention in the AFC, including the Miami Dolphins, Bills, Jets, New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers. In addition to taking care of its own business in the weeks ahead, Cleveland is going to also need plenty of help to make the playoffs.
But while the Browns' playoff outlook currently looks slim, a win over the Texans would increase their odds to at least nine percent, with another win over the Bengals in Week 14 boosting those odds to at least 20 percent. And if Cleveland wins three straight games by also beating the Ravens in Week 15, the Browns woud have at least a 35 percent chance of making the playoffs heading into their final three games of the season, according to Five Thirty-Eight.
What's ahead?
Here are the games left on the Browns' 2022 schedule:
- Dec. 4 at Houston Texans
- Dec. 11 at Cincinnati Bengals
- Dec. 18 vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Dec. 24 vs. New Orleans Saints
- Jan. 1 at Washington Commanders
- Jan. 8 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland's remaining schedule is a mixed bag, with games against three AFC North foes who each remain in playoff contention, and three underachievers in the Texans, New Orleans Saints and Washington Commanders. In all likelihood, the Browns can't afford to finish their final six games with anything worse than a 5-1 record -- and even that might not be enough -- if they're going to have a realistic shot at qualifying for postseason play.