Latest poll: Clinton surging in Ohio

A new poll shows Hillary Clinton surging to a 9-point lead over Donald Trump in Ohio.

The poll, conducted by Baldwin Wallace University's Community Research Center, shows the Democratic former secretary of state beating the Republican businessman 43 to 34 percent when two third-party candidates are included. In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton extends her lead to 10 points.

The size of Clinton's lead will likely raise some eyebrows. The poll's results are a dramatic shift from the average of the most recent polling in Ohio, all conducted prior to the release of the video. The previous Real Clear Politics poll average in Ohio for the four-way race showed a dead heat, with Clinton up 44 percent to Trump's 43.5 percent.

As with all polls, it is best to consider the Baldwin-Wallace poll as only partial evidence of what voters think.

This is the first poll of the Buckeye State since Sunday's debate and since a damaging video of Trump was released on Saturday. The release of the 2005 video, which features Trump graphically describing sexual assaults, triggered many Republican officials to withdraw their support from their part's standard bearer.

More than half of poll respondents who saw Sunday night's debate – 52 percent – said Clinton was the victor, while 31 percent said Trump won. Those who said the candidates tied totaled 17 percent.

Baldwin-Wallace's survey indicated voters are deeply dissatisfied with both the two major party candidates. About 47  percent of Clinton supporters are more about keeping Trump out of the White House, while 63 percent of those who supported Trump said they did so to stop Clinton from winning on Nov. 8. But the polling indicated undecided voters are leaning toward Clinton, not Trump.

“A large percentage of Ohio’s electorate is most passionate about who should not be president,” said Tom Sutton, Baldwin-Wallace political science professor and director of the Community Research Institute, in a news release. “The core support for each of the major party candidates has stayed largely unchanged, but the bad news for Trump is that more of the undecideds – and some third party supporters – who are now coming off the fence are moving to Clinton.”

The results are somewhat consistent with new national polls showing a shift toward Clinton in the wake of the video's release and debate. Clinton is beating Trump by nearly 5 points, according to the Real Clear Politics national four-way-race polling average, which does include more Trump-friendly polling conducted before this past weekend.

The Ohio poll also showed Sen. Rob Portman, a Terrace Park Republican, maintaining his double-digit lead over Democratic challenger Ted Strickland, 48 percent to 36 percent, with 17 percent undecided. Portman rescinded his support for Trump in a statement sent at 9:30 p.m. Saturday.

The poll of 1,152 likely Ohio voters was conducted online from Sunday (starting after the debate at 11 p.m.) through Tuesday 7 p.m.  It has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points for registered voters.

Note: An earlier version of this story misstated Clinton's head-to-head lead in the poll, which is 10 percent.


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