With the marijuana battle landing on Ohio's ballot for the first time next month, a new poll conducted by WKYC and Kent State University shows 56 percent of the state's voters support allowing adults to possess small amounts of marijuana for personal use.
The results also show 32 percent are opposed with another 10 percent who don't know how they feel yet. See full report below.
POLL BREAKDOWN | See image results of the WKYC/Kent State marijuana poll
These were the results of a Kent State study commissioned by WKYC leading up to the Nov. 3 ballot. Kent State's Survey Research Lab and experts from the Department of Sociology and Department of Political Science in Kent State's College of Arts and Sciences fielded a survey of 500 registered voters in Ohio.
Among the results, 84 percent of Ohioans say they would "support allowing adults in Ohio to legally use marijuana for medical purposes if their doctor prescribes it" (plus or minus 4 percent).
With the margin of error, these figures are nearly identical to the Oct. 8 Quinnipiac University poll, which used the same wording.
The WKYC/Kent State Poll also asked the participants about their voting plans for the two ballot issues connected to marijuana:
- 54 percent plan to vote "yes" on Issue 2 while 26 percent were undecided.
- 58 percent plan to vote "yes" on Issue 3 while 10 percent were undecided.
Poll shows support for legalizing pot
"We felt it was important to get a pulse on how people throughout the state are feeling before these issues go to the ballot," said WKYC President and General Manager Micki Byrnes. "We knew that partnering with Kent State University's Department of Sociology and Department of Political Science would provide us a fair and balanced look at what have become fairly controversial issues for all voters in the state of Ohio."
First, which issue, 2 or 3, would legalize marijuana in Ohio? Here's a more in-depth dive...
"If the election were held today and nearly all registered voters participated, both Issue 2 and Issue 3 would likely pass leading to a constitutional crisis," said Ryan Claassen, associate professor in Kent State's Department of Political Science. "About 57 percent of voters that plan to vote yes on Issue 2 also plan to vote yes for Issue 3."
Both issues are framed by the monopoly provision in the text that will appear on voters' ballots in November. Robust support for Issue 3, despite the ballot wording, means that voters are either nonplussed by the monopoly arguments or they are setting those concerns aside when considering Issue 3 because those concerns are addressed in their vote for Issue 2.
Consistent with the latter perspective, support for Issue 2 and Issue 3 is not strongly related. About 57 percent of voters that plan to vote yes on Issue 2 also plan to vote yes for Issue 3.
The WKYC/Kent State Poll also asked respondents how they plan to vote after providing them with a bit of information about Issue 2 and Issue 3 using summaries of actual ballot wording from the Ohio Secretary of State website.
54 percent of Ohioans plan to vote yes on Issue 2 (plus or minus 4 percent). 26 percent said they did not know how they would vote.
On Issue 3, 56 percent of Ohioans said they plan to vote yes (plus or minus 4 percent) and only 10 percent said they did not know how they would vote.
That means that, if the election were held today and nearly all registered voters participated, both Issue 2 and Issue 3 would likely pass, leading to a constitutional crisis, since Issue 2 contains a provision that is designed to nullify Issue 3.
But it is extremely unlikely that nearly all registered voters will participate in the election on Nov. 3.
General elections in odd-numbered years are not buoyed by Presidential or Congressional elections and far fewer participate than in even numbered election years. Turnout in 2011 in Ohio was unusually high at 47 percent of registered voters when there was a ballot issue repealing legislation restricting the collective bargaining rights of public employees in Ohio.
Since about 85 percent of those eligible to vote in Ohio are registered, this was a turnout rate of about 40 percent. In 2009, 45 percent of registered voters showed up to vote and in 2007 that figure was only 31 percent (only about a quarter of those eligible).
And because low turnout electorates tend to be older and more Republican than the eligible electorate, it is also crucial to consider how voting on Issue 2 and Issue 3 breaks down by political party and age.
For Issue 2, partisanship matters relatively little. 57 percent of self-identified Republicans, 53 percent of self-identified Democrats, and 56 percent of self-identified Independents say they will vote yes on Issue 2.
However, for Issue 3, the party divide is wider. 45 percent of self-identified Republicans, 67 percent of self-identified Democrats, and 50 percent of self-identified Independents say they will vote yes on Issue 3.
In the WKYC/Kent State Poll sample of registered voters, about 30 percent are Republicans and 40 percent are Democrats.
If turnout is higher among Republicans, it will pull the number of "yes" votes down from the 56 percent that said they would vote "yes" in the WKYC/Kent State Poll.
Age is also only slightly associated with voting on Issue 2. However, age is another important factor in voting on Issue 3.
Here the WKYC/Kent State Poll estimates support for Issue 3 goes down about 6 percent for about every 10 years of age. Again, if turnout is low among young people -- and it will be compared to among older registered voters -- it will pull the number of yes votes down from the 56 percent that said they would vote yes in our survey.
In terms of other groups, women, blacks, and Hispanics are less supportive of both Issue 2 and Issue 3 than men and non-Hispanic whites, but the differences are only statistically significant for Issue 2.
In general the subgroup breakdowns for Issue 2 and Issue 3 are more favorable for Issue 2. The WKYC/Kent State Poll shows a narrow majority in favor of Issue 2 and the lack of partisan or age structure mean this support is unlikely to erode due to low turnout.
For Issue 3, on the contrary, the subgroup breakdowns almost certainly mean our estimated support of 56 percent will be eroded by low turnout. Though we also note that the percent that say they don't know how they will vote is also higher for Issue 2, which could introduce volatility in either direction.
It's important to note that support for Issue 3 is well below public support for medical marijuana.
We take this to mean that the medical marijuana aspect of Issue 3 is not foremost in voters' minds. Voters seem to feel similarly about Issue 3 and legalizing marijuana for personal use. We confirmed this by looking at the associations between opinions about legalizing marijuana and support for Issue 3.
Opinion about personal use is strongly correlated with support for Issue 3, but opinion about medical marijuana is only weakly correlated.
It is also important to note the expressed levels of Issue 3 support given the ballot wording of Issue 2 and Issue 3.
Both issues are framed by the monopoly provision in the text that will appear on voters' ballots in November. Robust support for Issue 3, despite the ballot wording, means that voters are either nonplussed by the monopoly arguments or they are setting those concerns aside when considering Issue 3 because those concerns are addressed in their vote for Issue 2.
Consistent with the latter perspective, support for Issue 2 and Issue 3 is not strongly related. About 57 percent of voters that plan to vote yes on Issue 2 also plan to vote yes for Issue 3.
Issue 2 would ban amendments that create marijuana monopolies and embed them in Ohio's Constitution. Issue 3 is ResponsibleOhio's plan to legalize recreational and medical marijuana for Ohioans ages 21 and older. It would create 10 growth sites owned by the campaign's investors that would be the exclusive source of commercial marijuana.
But if both Issue 2 and 3 pass, there's a good chance the question of which takes precedence could wind up in court.
Compared to 1969, when only 12 percent of Americans supported legalizing pot, today a majority of Americans support legalizing recreational use of the drug.
ResponsibleOhio's campaign includes mascot, Buddie, a fuzzy, ever-smiling pot bud with bulging white muscles. Buddie toured college campuses this fall.
The response of groups both for and against legalizing marijuana ranges from the Ohio Chamber of Commerce to local political leaders.
Kent State Criminologist Anthony Vander Horst participated in the poll and said if the results are true, they could lead to bigger problems.
He has been studying the impact of marijuana on Denver, since it was legalized there. He found home prices have gone up, along with homelessness, and said police have had a hard time enforcing drug intoxication laws.
Those are not even his biggest concerns, either.
“I think number one is what happens with children,” Vander Horst said. He worries about marijuana-laced foods getting into the hands of kids.
“And so they end up getting a hold of these things, if parents aren’t locking them up or putting them away in a place they can’t get it,” he said.
He agrees next month’s poll is a potentially historic moment, while pointing there are still too many unknowns.
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