Young Stars: shooting or falling?
Going into the 2006 season several youngsters were part of the hype machine. Now that about 25% of the season is history it's a good time to see how some of those prospects have produced.
Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle - "King Felix" was being touted as the best young pitcher in the game. Some even went so far as to predict that he would be the top hurler in the majors this year. Well, after eight starts, Hernandez hasn't even proven he's worthy of a spot in the rotation. After getting beat like a drum by the A's on Tuesday, his stat line is plain awful: 2-5, 5.19 ERA, 1.66 WHIP. About the only thing this kid has done well is rack up the strikeouts, averaging 9.76 per nine innings. Why has he struggled? Take your pick of the reasons being thrown around (or just create your own...because right now it's a mystery). Some have said he hasn't found his groove after shinsplints affected him in spring training. Others believe he's hiding an injury. There has been some speculation that he's just not ready to pitch at the game's highest level yet. Another popular theory is that catcher Kenji Johjima, an import from Japan, is calling too much soft, offspeed stuff and is not allowing Hernandez to utilize his upper-90's, moving fastball. Whatever the reason, the King better straighten things out soon or he may go down as the biggest disappointment of 2006.
Francisco Liriano, SP/RP, Minnesota - The "next Johan Santana" started the season in bullpen, losing out on a rotation spot to Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse and Scott Baker. After beginning in middle relief, Liriano was bumped to a role as a set-up man for closer Joe Nathan. His stats have been good (1-0, 3.22 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 12.90 K/9), he just needs more innings to give them more weight. Now, after Silva and Lohse have pitched poorly enough to lose their rotation spots (Lohse was shipped to AAA), Francisco will start taking the hill every fifth day. Don't look for high totals right away because it may take 3-5 starts before he builds up enough stamina to go deep into games. However, the young lefty will probably continue to provide quality in the percentage/average categories. From this point forward look for an ERA around 3.85, about 10 K/9 and a WHIP of 1.25.
Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Boston - Many anticipated a few months in middle relief and then a move to the rotation. Well, the middle relief part was correct. But, instead of becoming a starter, Papelbon was forced to take over as the closer when Keith Foulke once again had problems closing the door. So far it has been a great move for the Red Sox and their talented young hurler. He has dominated at the end (0-1, 0.42 ERA, 14 saves) and it doesn't look like Foulke will be getting his job back in the near future. The plan is to eventually have Papelbon move into the rotation, but it is likely that it won't happen until 2007 at the earliest. And, even if/when it does happen, this kid appears the have the stuff to dominate in that capacity as well.
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington - After hitting .397 in a short trial last year, big things were expected. Tha Nationals even traded Vinny Castilla to open a spot a the hot corner. So far the results have been mixed for Zimmerman. The average (.262) isn't impressive, but the power (6 HR, 21 RBI) has been a little more than expected. He has even swiped three bases. The best news is that Zimmerman continues to show improvement and may even get that average in the .290-.300 range by season's end. He's definitely a player to keep an eye on in keeper leagues.
Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida - Yes, he hit a grand slam in his first major league AB. But that was last year and Hermida needed to prove himself in 2006. Unfortunately he hasn't had that chance because most of his season has been lost to injury. When he went down the numbers weren't great (.250, 0 HR, 0 RBI), but six games don't allow enough of a sample size to form an educated opinion. Keep an eye on Hermida - he'll probably hit in the middle of the order when he returns - and don't be afraid to take a chance if he shows signs that he's ready to produce.
Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit - Hernandez and Liriano got the headlines, but this kid might be better than both of them. Armed with filthy stuff, including an upper-90's heater, Verlander has shown the ablity to dominate hitters. After spinning a gem (8 inn., 6 hits, 0 runs) to beat Santana and the Twins, this 23-year-old should start being mentioned with the upper echelon of starting pitchers. His numbers so far are phenomenal: 5-3, 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 4.7 K/9. The lack of strikeouts is somewhat surprising, but expect them to go increase as he learns more about the hitters. Of all the young arms in the show, Verlander may turn out to be the best.
Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia - Ha, the Phillies sure look stupid for trading Jim Thome in order to open up a spot for some kid. Wait, maybe not. While Thome continues to get press for his hot start in Chicago, Howard is doing some nice work of his own. He has shown insane power and the strength to drive the ball out of any part of any yard. He has proven himself in the clutch, recently hitting game-tying and game-winning home runs in the same game. And, to this point, he has even shown an ability to hit for average. Just take one look at his numbers and it's obvious this guy can hit (.304, 12 HR, 30 RBI). He's a little older than some would like (he'll be 27 in November), but it really shouldn't be an issue. If he really is legit - and it seems he is - he should still have many good years ahead of him.
Conor Jackson, 1B, Arizona - Tony Clark hit 30 home runs last year as part of a platoon for the Diamondbacks. This season he's having trouble finding the field. It's not that Clark can't contibut anymore, it's because Jackson is seen as one of the better young hitters in the game. He was flirting with .300 but has dipped to .281. However, he has shown he's capable of handling the bat and producing a high average. He has also displayed some power, slugging four home runs and nine doubles, as well as and driving in 23 runs. So far Jackson has done nothing to sway the opinion that he might one day be a batting champion and a star hitter.
Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco - Considered the N.L. answer to King Felix entering 2006, Cain has had similar results. His combination of electric stuff and a cup of coffee at the end of '05 seemed to be the recipe for success. But if he keeps pitching like he has (1-5, 6.69 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.47 K/9), it won't be long before he gets shipped to Triple-A for more seasoning.
Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle - "King Felix" was being touted as the best young pitcher in the game. Some even went so far as to predict that he would be the top hurler in the majors this year. Well, after eight starts, Hernandez hasn't even proven he's worthy of a spot in the rotation. After getting beat like a drum by the A's on Tuesday, his stat line is plain awful: 2-5, 5.19 ERA, 1.66 WHIP. About the only thing this kid has done well is rack up the strikeouts, averaging 9.76 per nine innings. Why has he struggled? Take your pick of the reasons being thrown around (or just create your own...because right now it's a mystery). Some have said he hasn't found his groove after shinsplints affected him in spring training. Others believe he's hiding an injury. There has been some speculation that he's just not ready to pitch at the game's highest level yet. Another popular theory is that catcher Kenji Johjima, an import from Japan, is calling too much soft, offspeed stuff and is not allowing Hernandez to utilize his upper-90's, moving fastball. Whatever the reason, the King better straighten things out soon or he may go down as the biggest disappointment of 2006.
Francisco Liriano, SP/RP, Minnesota - The "next Johan Santana" started the season in bullpen, losing out on a rotation spot to Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse and Scott Baker. After beginning in middle relief, Liriano was bumped to a role as a set-up man for closer Joe Nathan. His stats have been good (1-0, 3.22 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 12.90 K/9), he just needs more innings to give them more weight. Now, after Silva and Lohse have pitched poorly enough to lose their rotation spots (Lohse was shipped to AAA), Francisco will start taking the hill every fifth day. Don't look for high totals right away because it may take 3-5 starts before he builds up enough stamina to go deep into games. However, the young lefty will probably continue to provide quality in the percentage/average categories. From this point forward look for an ERA around 3.85, about 10 K/9 and a WHIP of 1.25.
Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Boston - Many anticipated a few months in middle relief and then a move to the rotation. Well, the middle relief part was correct. But, instead of becoming a starter, Papelbon was forced to take over as the closer when Keith Foulke once again had problems closing the door. So far it has been a great move for the Red Sox and their talented young hurler. He has dominated at the end (0-1, 0.42 ERA, 14 saves) and it doesn't look like Foulke will be getting his job back in the near future. The plan is to eventually have Papelbon move into the rotation, but it is likely that it won't happen until 2007 at the earliest. And, even if/when it does happen, this kid appears the have the stuff to dominate in that capacity as well.
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington - After hitting .397 in a short trial last year, big things were expected. Tha Nationals even traded Vinny Castilla to open a spot a the hot corner. So far the results have been mixed for Zimmerman. The average (.262) isn't impressive, but the power (6 HR, 21 RBI) has been a little more than expected. He has even swiped three bases. The best news is that Zimmerman continues to show improvement and may even get that average in the .290-.300 range by season's end. He's definitely a player to keep an eye on in keeper leagues.
Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida - Yes, he hit a grand slam in his first major league AB. But that was last year and Hermida needed to prove himself in 2006. Unfortunately he hasn't had that chance because most of his season has been lost to injury. When he went down the numbers weren't great (.250, 0 HR, 0 RBI), but six games don't allow enough of a sample size to form an educated opinion. Keep an eye on Hermida - he'll probably hit in the middle of the order when he returns - and don't be afraid to take a chance if he shows signs that he's ready to produce.
Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit - Hernandez and Liriano got the headlines, but this kid might be better than both of them. Armed with filthy stuff, including an upper-90's heater, Verlander has shown the ablity to dominate hitters. After spinning a gem (8 inn., 6 hits, 0 runs) to beat Santana and the Twins, this 23-year-old should start being mentioned with the upper echelon of starting pitchers. His numbers so far are phenomenal: 5-3, 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 4.7 K/9. The lack of strikeouts is somewhat surprising, but expect them to go increase as he learns more about the hitters. Of all the young arms in the show, Verlander may turn out to be the best.
Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia - Ha, the Phillies sure look stupid for trading Jim Thome in order to open up a spot for some kid. Wait, maybe not. While Thome continues to get press for his hot start in Chicago, Howard is doing some nice work of his own. He has shown insane power and the strength to drive the ball out of any part of any yard. He has proven himself in the clutch, recently hitting game-tying and game-winning home runs in the same game. And, to this point, he has even shown an ability to hit for average. Just take one look at his numbers and it's obvious this guy can hit (.304, 12 HR, 30 RBI). He's a little older than some would like (he'll be 27 in November), but it really shouldn't be an issue. If he really is legit - and it seems he is - he should still have many good years ahead of him.
Conor Jackson, 1B, Arizona - Tony Clark hit 30 home runs last year as part of a platoon for the Diamondbacks. This season he's having trouble finding the field. It's not that Clark can't contibut anymore, it's because Jackson is seen as one of the better young hitters in the game. He was flirting with .300 but has dipped to .281. However, he has shown he's capable of handling the bat and producing a high average. He has also displayed some power, slugging four home runs and nine doubles, as well as and driving in 23 runs. So far Jackson has done nothing to sway the opinion that he might one day be a batting champion and a star hitter.
Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco - Considered the N.L. answer to King Felix entering 2006, Cain has had similar results. His combination of electric stuff and a cup of coffee at the end of '05 seemed to be the recipe for success. But if he keeps pitching like he has (1-5, 6.69 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.47 K/9), it won't be long before he gets shipped to Triple-A for more seasoning.
posted by Russ Simeone at
12:14 AM
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