Another late loss for Texas

It's a good thing Francisco Cordero isn't a lifeguard because he can't save anything. Yesterday's post looked at three struggling closers, Frankie being the worst of the group. Well, when he got an opportunity later in the day he definitely didn't disappoint. Unless, of course, you own him. The Rangers' "stopper" blew his fifth save opportunity out of eight attempts. This time he gave up a game-tying home run to Oakland's Dan Johnson. At some point Buck Showalter will have to realize that this guy shouldn't be closing and a replacement will be found. Shockingly it hasn't happened already.

Save me!

Being a closer is one of the most stressful things in baseball. Owning a shaky reliever is one of the most stressful things in fantasy baseball. So far the 2006 season has seen a few big names struggle out of the gate.

The first name that should be mentioned is Brad Lidge. The guy was nearly unhittable for two seasons, then got slammed by Albert Pujols in the NLCS and was then ripped by the White Sox in the World Series. Lidge's ability to rebound was a topic of discussion over the winter. Would he shake off the bad ending to his '05 season or would he be the new B.K. Kim? The Houston closer repeatedly said he was fine and had put his poor postseason performance behind him, but the start to this season could signal otherwise.

Although Lidge started out 7-for-7 in save opportunities, he wasn't exactly lights out when called on. To this point in the season he has only struck out the side once. This wouldn't be a big deal for most pitchers, but this is a guy who has a reputation as a K machine. Add in the fact that, after his string of 7 saves, he has blown two straight, the guy at the back of the Astros' bullpen suddenly looks like a mere mortal.

So, should you be looking to dump the Houston stopper? Not yet. Two things should be pointed out. One, the two blown saves came while Lidge was wearing a compression brace on a knee that was struck by a comebacker hit by Jeromy Burnitz during the previous series. Also, 10 walks in 11.2 innings suggest that he's having some control problems, something which is often the result of a mechanical flaw. If the knee heals quickly and a flaw is detected/corrected in his mechanics, there's a good chance Lidge will once again dominate the 9th inning in Texas.

That's not the case for Francisco Cordero. This guy is being lit up like a 4th of July sky. In three of his last four outings, in which he has pitched a total of 3.1 innings, he has given up at least two earned runs....and it's not that much of a surprise. Take a look at the fantasy preview from wkyc.com:

If you're just looking for saves, this could be your guy. If you're looking for other great numbers to go along with them, you might want to look elsewhere. He has blown 23 saves over the last three seasons, including eight in 2005 (led the A.L.) so his job may not be 100% safe. Then again, who else would the Rangers turn to?

After another blown save Tuesday night, already Cordero's 4th, it seems he is really trying to force the Rangers to find the answer to that question at the end. The reason for the bad showings isn't control as he has only walked four batters in 9 innings. The problem is he is just getting hit. And, for a closer with a career WHIP of 1.41 and an ERA of 3.43, the performances so far can't be shrugged off. If you can find a taker, it's suggested that you look into dealing this guy while he still has the job. Sure, he may turn things around and be a very good closer for the rest of the year. But, as the numbers over the last couple seasons have shown, that kind of rebound is not likely.

Finally, we'll take a look at Huston Street. The 2005 A.L. ROY was the hot name on many closer lists, especially for people in keeper leagues. So, how has he started 2006? 1-1, 4 saves, 1 blown save, 1.94 WHIP, 7.94 ERA. Not exactly what everyone expected. And, to top things off, he's now battling an injured pectoral muscle.

But, like Lidge, it's probably wise to hold off on tossing Street to the scrap heap. He has only thrown 5.2 innings so far and the numbers are skewed because of one bad outing against Texas (.2 innings, 5 hits, 4 ER). Also, the A's expect him to start throwing again in the near future so he should be back on the bump soon. At the young age of 22, it's likely he'll go through a few more rough patches than a veteran like Mariano Rivera or Billy Wagner, but this kid still has the make-up and the stuff to be one of the top closers for many years. Instead of being in the seller's market with this guy, you should try to play up his ERA and then buy, buy, buy.


LIDGE
0-1, 7 saves, 2 blown saves, 6.94 ERA, 1.80 WHIP

CORDERO
2-2, 3 saves, 4 blown saves, 12.00 ERA, 1.89 WHIP

STREET
1-1, 4 saves, 1 blown save, 7.94 ERA, 1.94 WHIP

Fantasy becomes reality

I have been watching several games this year, as any baseball nut would do, and started thinking about fantasy baseball and how it stacks up with the real thing. After seeing guys like Josh Willingham and Robinson Cano turn their defensive areas into something Barnum and Bailey would envy, I immediately began to feel cheated by the fantasy brand.

Most formats don't include defensive statistics and, even if they did, they couldn't account for guys like Torii Hunter and J.T. Snow. Those guys make a living with the glove. Sure, Hunter can still benefit someone by hitting 20+ bombs, but he's probably the best defensive CF in the game and that doesn't translate to a fantasy game. Even in leagues that penalize for errors, Hunter's glovework doesn't make him more valuable. He'll have a few E's at the end of the year, while a butcher may have 8-10. That won't make all the highlight catches any more profitable for a fantasy owner.

Players don't get credit for the little things like a sacrifice bunt or hitting the ball to the right side with no outs and a runner on second. Having a good pickoff move doesn't mean squat for a fantasy pitcher (unless it helps the end numbers). Just think if Andy Pettitte received points for the runners he has nabbed or at least kept on first for fear of his balk..er, pickoff move. As a true baseball fan, it bothers me that these things are so hard, if not impossible, to work into a fantasy league.

Despite the inability to put the real game into fantasy format, I still participate. Why? Simple, it allows me to be more involved with my favorite sport than I ever thought possible (you know, once it became apparent I wouldn't make it as a player!).

I draft and run my own team. I make decisions about who will be in the starting line-up, which guys to cut, what players I should trade for. Sure, I have no control over what these guys do on the field, but neither do real owners. They can't determine whether Justin Morneau will go 4-for-4 or 0-for-4. Fantasy baseball allows me to be the owner, GM and manger all at once.

Another selling point of all fantasy sports is the ability to increase the overall knowledge of a fan. I have always been obsessed with baseball so I try to keep up with all the players, MLB all the way down to the rookie leagues (and even some Independent ones), the trends, the rules, etc. However, when I was in a hockey league a few years ago, I realized how much I had learned about the players and the game over the course of the season. I wouldn't say I was a know-nothing when joining the league, but I definitely had more of a mental arsenal at the end of the year. The same thing actually happened in a NASCAR fantasy league. I joined with little more knowledge than the "they just drive in circles" haters. But, by the time the Cup champ was determined, I was up to speed on wedge adjustments, spring rubbers, racing trim vs. qualifying trim, pit strategies and many other "redneck" things. Actually, I also learned that it's not just those with crimson headrests that follow this motorsport (even though I am now a fan of NASCAR, I still feel the need to stress the "motor" part).

After thinking, obviously way too long, about fantasy vs. reality, I realized one thing. While fantasy sports will never be an exact replica of the real versions - and never quite as good - I'm still glad I participate and hope I can for a long, long time.

Early Impressions

Well, the 2006 season is here and some players are already establishing themselves as good bargains:

C - Josh Willingham, Florida: the question with Willingham didn't involve his bat, it was about his glove. Going into Spring Training he wasn't guaranteed consistent at bats because the team wasn't sure where he would play. As it turns out, he'll be behind the plate enough to have eligibility as a catcher, but he'll get most of his time in the outfield. That combination should make him an outstanding option for fantasy teams. Full-time status, but not the wear-and-tear of catching all the time. He now looks like a good bet to hit .270 with 18-20 home runs. Grab him if he's available in your league.

1B - Jim Thome, Chicago (A): he was low on many draft lists because of concerns about his back. Well, he went on a tear at the end of Spring Training and it has continued through the first few games of the season. So far he doesn't look like a guy with health issues. Obviously that can change in an instant, but so far he looks like a guy who could easily swat 35 home runs and post a respectable average. The back issues will always be an area of concern, but for now he looks like the Thome of old.

2B - Dan Uggala, Florida: the Marlins have several players who probably came at a bargain rate in the draft or are still available as free agents. Uggala is one of them. He brings decent pop to the position and looks to have a firm grip on the starting job.

OF - Brandon Watson, Washington: he's holding down the leadoff spot and that's worth something in fantasy baseball. It means he should be a very cheap source of runs (75-80 minimum if he's leading off all season) and probably around 20 stolen bases. In competitive leagues, he's probably already on someone's roster. In less competitive leagues he'll probably be available for a little while so you don't have to claim him immediately and can wait to see if he tightens his grip on the job.

CL - Chris Reitsma, Atlanta: people seem to be afraid of this guy, but why? Sure, he's not going to be in the same category as Billy Wagner or Mariano Rivera, but he's closing for the Braves and that has to be worth something. Even if he's only keeping the spot warm for Joey Devine, he should at least have the job long enough to get 20 saves. Those are 20 saves that could come to you at a low cost.

CL - Jose Valverde, Arizona: he's the guy for the D'backs, at least for now. In 2005 the closer role was a revolving door. Brandon Lyon had a shot, Brian Bruney took a turn, then Valverde stepped up and claimed the job down the stretch. It's still unclear whether he is viewed as the the closer of the future, but he's definitely the one for the present. If you need saves and some strikeouts from your relievers, take a shot on Jose. You won't be sorry.

There are obviously many other players out there who are making an early impact, so keep an eye on your free agent lists. Also, watch the waiver wire for established players who get dropped by impatient owners who jump on the flash-in-the-pan players. Don't be surprised when a guy like Jose Guillen gets dumped for a reserve outfielder who happened to have two good games in a row (and will be sent to Triple-A one week later). That sort of thing happens every year.