Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Trade deadline

For many leagues the trade deadline is July 31st. That means you have just over a week to answer this question: am I a buyer or a seller?

It seems like an easy question and, for some, it is. If you're in the top 3-5 of your league you obviously have a shot at finishing in the money. If you currently reside in or near the basement, you're out. But, for those lingering outside of the top five but not quite near the bottom, what do you do?

The key to making the right decision is to be honest with yourself. Don't do a sell job on yourself, making your team seem better than it is. It will only hurt you.

Take a look at your team, a good look. Have you struggled because of injuries but your players are now healthy? Have some of your typically slow starters picked it up over the last couple weeks? If the answer to those is a solid "yes," you're probably in good shape to buy.

But, if you haven't dealt with injuries and you don't have a roster of second-half performers, it's a good idea to sell. And don't be fooled into thinking that one or two prospects might get called up and save your team. Those players can sometimes put a team over the top, but they won't usually take you from 10th place to 3rd.

So, what are the best ways to buy or sell? Here's a simple approach for keeper leagues (which seem to be the norm now):

If you're buying to improve for this year, you'll have to sacrifice keeper-level talent. If you have more players at that level than you are allowed to keep it will make it easier. Identify your keepers and then deal one of your other top players. Use that guy to bring in two or three B players. In one of my leagues I just traded Miguel Cabrera and James Shields in order to get Garrett Atkins, Jhonny Peralta and Aaron Cook. In my league Cabrera and Shields have far more keeper value than the guys I got back, but I really needed a SS and the other two players will do a nice job filling the other holes created by the deal. Plus I already had three hitters and two pitchers I was going to keep ahead of Cabrera/Shields.

The team I made the deal with is an example of a good seller. Identify a team in the hunt and offer them several quality players for one or two keepers. The quality/bulk you offer should help put the contender over the top, while the keepers you receive should help you build for next season.

Yes, the "what to do" might seem obvious. But there are many teams not willing to be active in the trading market. Teams "out of it" need to remember they are only out of it for this season. There's no reason they can't start working on being "in it" next year. Teams that are contenders need to realize that they can't just sit back and wait. They need to go out and make some moves that may sting in the future but will assure them a money finish this season.

The key is being honest with yourself and figuring out if you are truly a buyer or seller.

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