This Thanksgiving, I had plenty to be thankful for, including an 8-4 record against the spread in a bounce-back Week 12.
On the season, my record now stands at 84-72-9, with a full slate of games ahead in Week 13.
Let's keep the momentum rolling.
All lines made available via Bovada. Bears-Giants not available due to injury.
New Orleans Saints (-8) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Cowboys +8
With both of these teams having played on Thanksgiving, neither will have an advantage over the other in terms of rest. I think the Saints win this game outright, but the Cowboys should keep it close enough to cover as they attempt to keep pace in the three-team race that is the NFC East.
Buffalo Bills (+4.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins -4.5
Given that I wouldn't favor the Dolphins by a touchdown against anybody, this line seems about right, although I think last week's Bills win said more about Jacksonville than it did Buffalo. I'll take Miami to cover here, but I don't feel great about it, in a game between two teams whose records are better than they probably deserve to be.
Arizona Cardinals (+14) vs. Green Bay Packers
Pick: Cardinals +14
Having lost four of the past five games, the Packers season is coming off the rails, with Mike McCarthy's job status having become one of the NFL's hottest topics of conversation. Facing a bad Cardinals team, Green Bay can either take out its frustrations or let the dysfunction continue to mount. I'm inclined to think it will be the latter.
Denver Broncos (-5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Bengals +5.5
This line seems like an overreaction to the Bengals getting blown out by the Browns and the Broncos barely holding on to top the Steelers. I don't know if Cincinnati will win this game outright, but I do think that with A.J. Green back on the field, it will pull out all the stops to keep its playoff hopes alive.
Baltimore Ravens (+1) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Falcons -1
Although he's won his first two starts, I'm not ready to rely on Lamar Jackson on the road. Even though their playoff hopes are dwindling, I'll take the Falcons to play the role of spoiler in the Ravens' recent run.
Indianapolis Colts (-5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Colts -5
Given the Colts' ongoing hot streak and the dumpster fire that is the Jaguars, this seems like a pick the public will be all over. Typically in such situation, one should go the other way -- or perhaps more wisely, just stay away. But I've seen Cody Kessler enough to not want to be in a position where I'm wagering on him, no matter how many points I'm getting.
Los Angeles Rams (-10) vs. Detroit Lions
Pick: Rams -10
Jared Goff, Todd Gurley and Sean McVay playing in a dome, off a bye week, against one of the NFL's worst teams? I'd take the Rams -20 here if I had to.
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Panthers -3.5
I'm not sure if the Panthers are good, but I know the Bucs aren't. I'd feel a lot better if I was only laying three, but I still feel better than I would if I was relying on Tampa Bay to keep it close.
Cleveland Browns (+6) vs. Houston Texans
Pick: Texans -6
The Browns have been more than impressive their past two games, but the Texans present a whole different challenge than Atlanta or Cincinnati did. Ultimately, that Houston defensive line should prove to be a nightmare to overcome, with Deshaun Watson making just enough plays to beat Cleveland by a touchdown -- or more.
Kansas City Chiefs (-15.5) vs. Oakland Raiders
Pick: Chiefs -15.5
Coming off a bye following their historic loss to the Rams, the Chiefs should be well rested and plenty motivated. The 15.5 points here are obviously a lot to lay, but I'd rather do that than have to rely on the Raiders in any meaningful way.
New York Jets (+8) vs. Tennessee Titans
Pick: Jets +8
Even with Sam Darnold's status unsettled, the Jets offense has enough weapons to keep things close. Technically, the Titans remain "in the hunt," but haven't shown enough in recent weeks to inspire enough confidence to lay the eight points.
San Francisco 49ers (+10) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seahawks -10
At 6-5, Seattle is having a sneaky good season and is right in the the mix for an NFC Wild Card spot. The 49ers, meanwhile, have shown flashes without Jimmy Garoppolo, but have also been blown out in three of their last five games.
Let's make that four of their last six.
Minnesota Vikings (+6) vs. New England Patriots
Pick: Vikings +6
As far as the Patriots' schedule is concerned, the Vikings are one of the more talented teams they'll face. I'll take Minnesota to keep it close -- and perhaps even win outright -- but at the very least, do enough to cover the six-point spread.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Chargers +3.5
This seems like a good bounce-back spot for the Steelers, but the Chargers seem undervalued at +3.5. I'll take my chances on Phillip Rivers and the Los Angeles pass rush keeping it close in a game that should be decided in the final minutes.
Washington Redskins (+6) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Redskins +6
The Eagles haven't won a game by more than six points since Oct. 12. Philadelphia should win this game, but I'll take that trend to continue, even if it means depending on a Washington team currently quarterbacked by Colt McCoy.