CLEVELAND — Most polls have indicated President Donald Trump faces an uphill battle this November in the race for the White House against former Vice President Joe Biden. However, the incumbent appears to still have an advantage in our own crucial swing state.
A new survey released Tuesday by Morning Consult shows Trump clinging to a three-point lead (48%-45%) among Ohioans. That's just outside the +/- 1.9% margin of error, with the results coming from a stratified survey of 1,741 voters based on gender, age, and language before being weighted based on other factors from state demographics.
Trump won Ohio 52%-44% over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, the largest margin of victory for any candidate in the state since George H. W. Bush's win over Michael Dukakis in 1988. No one has gained the presidency without winning Ohio since John F. Kennedy in 1960.
But despite the edge in the Buckeye state, the results of the poll still show Trump slipping in the eyes of the electorate, as Morning Consult showed his lead in Ohio to be eight points just two months ago. This time around, the company also surveyed voters in 11 other swing states, and Biden currently leads in all except North Carolina (tie) while Trump was within the margin of error in Georgia and Minnesota.
FiveThirtyEight's weighted average currently puts the president's national approval rating at 40%, his lowest mark since January of 2019. His decline in popularity seems to be a direct result of criticisms stemming from his administration's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, as cases have continued to rise across the country in contrast to other developed nations.
The states that have been hardest hit by COVID-19 in recent weeks include Arizona, Florida, and Texas, all areas where Trump claimed victory four years ago. Back in May, the president led all three by nine, five, and eight points, respectively; he now trails each by seven, three, and two, according to Morning Consult.
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