"Last night took an L, but tonight I bounce back." - Big Sean in "Bounce back."
After two straight losing weeks, I got back to my winning ways in Week 10, tallying a 7-5-2 record. That brings my total for the season to 68-75-2. Let's try to keep the momentum rolling with my Week 11 picks.
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Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Seahawks -3
The Seahawks have dropped three of their past four while the Cardinals come in still riding high from the "Hail Murray." I'll take Seattle to bounce back thanks to a vintage Russell Wilson primetime performance.
Cleveland Browns (-3.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Browns -3.5
Over the course of the past month, the Browns have become accustomed to playing in the elements. Meanwhile, a wet weather forecast could spell trouble for turnover-prone Carson Wentz.
New Orleans Saints (-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Falcons +5
The Falcons should be well-rested coming off a bye and have been playing much better under interim head coach Raheem Morris. Plus, Jameis Winston is usually good for at least one pick-6.
Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Detroit Lions
Pick: Panthers -1.5
Even if Teddy Bridgewater can't play, the dropoff to should-have-been XFL MVP P.J. Walker (MVPJ) might not be as steep as you'd think. This is largely a bet on Matt Rhule out-coaching Matt Patricia.
Houston Texans (+2) vs. New England Patriots
Pick: Texans +2
This line feels like an overreaction to last week's outcomes for both teams. I expect a big bounce back from Deshaun Watson, who wasn't able to generate much offense during a windy day in Cleveland last Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Steelers -10
The Gardner Minshew-less Jaguars have done a nice job of hanging tough these past few weeks, but at a certain point, there's only so much you can do. Plus, the Steelers make good on all the slander they've been throwing toward the MAC this week.
Indianapolis Colts (-2) vs. Green Bay Packers
Pick: Packers +2
The Colts have one of the best defenses in the NFL but have to play a very specific offensive style to be successful. I think Aaron Rodgers will do enough to take Phillip Rivers out of his comfort zone.
Washington Football Team (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Football Team -1.5
Washington may be one of the worst teams in the league, but it still lays claim to a top 10 defense according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. The Football Team's defensive line should create plenty of problems for one of the NFL's worst offensive lines.
Baltimore Ravens (-6) vs. Tennessee Titans
Pick: Titans +6
With the way Lamar Jackson has been playing lately, there aren't many teams I would take the Ravens to cover a 6-point spread against. That includes a talented Titans team coming off a long week of rest and in need of a win to keep pace in the AFC Wild Card race.
Minnesota Vikings (-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Vikings -7
The Cowboys are going to need much more than a bye week to turn this season around. Meanwhile, after a sluggish start, the Vikings seem to have finally found their footing with three straight wins.
Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs -7.5
The Raiders have been impressive lately, but the Chiefs enter this game looking for revenge against the only team to beat them this season. Hell hath no fury like a Patrick Mahomes scorned.
Denver Broncos (+3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins -3.5
Laying claim to the worst offense in the NFL, per DVOA, it's hard to imagine the Drew Lock-led Broncos keeping pace with a Dolphins team that only seems to be improving with Tua in the lineup.
Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5) vs. New York Jets
Pick: Chargers -8.5
These Chargers are better than their 2-7 record suggests. And it's hard to imagine a better get right spot for them than a game against the worst team in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Rams +4
This season has felt so boom or bust on a week to week basis for Tom Brady and the Bucs. While I expect a competitive contest, four points just feel like too many to pass up in a game between two relatively evenly matched teams.