Do you smell that?
Sniff a little harder.
That, my friends, is the sweet scent of victory.
Even with a losing run in last week's Divisional Round, I've officially clinched a winning record picking games against the spread for the 2018 NFL season. After last weekend's disastrous 1-3 mark, my record for the season stands at 122-115-11 with just three games remaining on the postseason slate.
But why stop there?
Even though an above .500 success rate is the goal for any rational bettor, I'd hate to see what's been a strong season for me go to waste. With three games left, I only have limited opportunities left. That begins this weekend, with the two games that comprise the NFL's Conference Championship round.
Let's get to it.
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
Pick: Rams +3.5
When these two teams squared off earlier this season in New Orleans, the Saints handed the Rams their first loss of the year with a 45-35 victory. That final score is a bit misleading, however, as Los Angeles tacked on a late touchdown to take their lead from 3 to 10.
For as dominant as the Saints have been this season, their playoff gene has been somewhat lacking. In fact, you'd have to go back to Week 14 to find the last time they beat a team by more than three points and to Nov. 18 to find the last time they took part in a true blowout.
Furthermore, unlike the first meeting between these two teams, the Rams will be with Aqib Talib, which has proven to have a positive effect on the rest of their defense. In a game that I could see Los Angeles winning outright, I'll settle for having the 3.5 points on my side.
New England Patriots (+3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs -3
I can't believe I'm doing this and I have a feeling the ensuing paragraphs are going to only make me less confident in my pick.
Nevertheless, I'm rolling with the Chiefs, in large part because this simply seems like Patrick Mahomes' year. In some ways, I'm hedging, because I truly believe that at least one -- if not both -- Mahomes and Goff are going to wind up in the Super Bowl, so I might as well stick with my guns and pick both young quarterbacks.
If this spread was any higher, I'd be more inclined to take New England, but 3 points seems like a fair ask for the Chiefs to cover at home. In their meeting during the regular season, Kansas City gave the Patriots everything they could handle -- and that game was in New England. I'm not holding my breath, but it feels like if a team is going to knock off Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, it has to be one as talented as the Chiefs.
