They say a tie is like kissing your sister.
I guess fortunately for me, I've been falling just short of doing that the past two weeks.
After posting a 7-8 record in Week 14, I once again just missed out on breaking even in Week 15, posting a 7-9 total against the spread. While I may not currently be kissing anyone -- who came up with this analogy anyways? -- I'm still above water for the season with a 98-89-9 record.
Enough with this prevent defense. Let's get back to my winning ways.
All lines made available via Bovada.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
I'd feel better about this pick if not for the extra .5 (which is probably why it's there). As talented as the Chargers are, this is simply a pick for the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in primetime and the continuing trend of home favorites covering on Thursday night.
Houston Texans (-6.5) vs. New York Jets
Pick: Texans -6.5
Despite all the hype surrounding the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and even Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson has quietly emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in football this season. Coming off a loss to the Colts, I like this as a bounce-back spot for Houston against a depleted Jets team with nothing left to play for other than draft positioning.
Cleveland Browns (+3) vs. Denver Broncos
Pick: Broncos -3
I'd love to be proven wrong here, but playing on the road at night on a short week is a tall task for any rookie quarterback -- even one playing well as Mayfield. The Browns offensive line has done an adequate job protecting the No. 1 overall pick in recent weeks, but continuing that trend will be easier said than done against the likes of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb.
Green Bay Packers (+6) vs. Chicago Bears
Pick: Packers +6
I'm no Joe Philbin believer, but it wasn't hard to see that the Packers played better last week -- even Philbin used all of the team's challenges in the first 90 seconds of the game. Nevertheless, I like this as a letdown spot for the Bears after their win over the Rams. I don't know if Green Bay will win, but I'll take Aaron Rodgers and the six points.
Dallas Cowboys (+3) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Cowboys +3
With Dallas riding a 5-game winning streak, this line feels like it should be closer to a pick 'em than a traditional home team -3. I'll take the Cowboys to not only win but win this game outright and lock up the NFC East.
Tennessee Titans (+1.5) vs. New York Giants
Pick: Titans +1.5
I don't feel great about this pick, but with the up-and-down Giants coming off a win, it feels like as good of a time as any to forecast a loss. Plus, the Titans are coming off a long week of rest and are more firmly in the mix for a playoff spot than the Giants currently are.
Miami Dolphins (+7) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Dolphins +7
Another line I don't quite understand. Sure, the Dolphins beat the Patriots on a fluke play, but even if not for the double lateral, Miami still would have covered. The Vikings, meanwhile, have been one of the league's most underachieving teams and just fired their offensive coordinator. I don't think that will be enough to fix their leaky offensive line. I'll take the Dolphins to keep this one within a touchdown.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Buccaneers +7.5
How are the Ravens laying more than a touchdown with a rookie quarterback who hasn't even proven he can move the ball with his arm on a consistent basis? Baltimore may very well win this game, but given its newfound reliance on the run game, I have a hard time seeing it happening in blowout fashion.
Arizona Cardinals (+9) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Cardinals +9
It might look like I've gone from a guy who only takes favorites to one who only takes underdogs (maybe I'll re-evaluate my Titans +1.5 pick, OK?), but I don't understand how the Falcons can be laying 9 points against any team at this point in the season -- even the 3-10 Cardinals, who at the very least have shown the ability to hang tough against more talented teams.
Oakland Raiders (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Bengals -3
The Raiders may have just picked up a big win over the Steelers -- with a Super Bowl-caliber celebration to boot -- but it's hard to imagine that momentum carrying over into a week where they'll be forced to travel east and face Cincinnati in a 1 p.m. game. The Bengals have hardly been bankable this season, but this feels like a spot where they can add another win and screw up their draft position.
Washington Redskins (+7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Redskins +7
Between the Redskins' quarterback situation and the Jaguars coming off a long week, everything here says to roll with Jacksonville. But in good conscience, I can't count on Cody Kessler to cover a touchdown spread.
Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Buffalo Bills
Pick: Lions +3
I've sat here for 10 minutes staring at this game and I can't think of a single angle/slant/reason to pick either team. I guess I'll take the points.
Seattle Seahawks (-5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Seahawks -5
The Seahawks have quietly become one of the NFC's top teams, while the 49ers don't have anything to play for other than draft position. This line seems low -- almost suspiciously low if you ask me -- but I'm just going to bank on the better team taking care of business.
New England Patriots (-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Patriots -2
The Steelers need a win in the worst way, but the bad news for them is the Patriots are coming off an unlikely loss. I'll take New England to bounce back -- especially when all I have to lay is less than a field goal.
Philadelphia Eagles (+10.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Rams -10.5
After last week's loss to the Bears, the Rams are due for a big win. And facing an Eagles team that just found out that Carson Wentz is done for the year -- and that hasn't been anything special this season regardless of who's playing at quarterback -- the Eagles provide the perfect opponent to accomplish just that.
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Pick: Panthers +6.5
While the Saints should win this game, 6.5 points are just too many to lay on the road against a talented division opponent on Monday Night Football.