x
Breaking News
More () »

Ben Axelrod's Week 17 NFL picks: Patriots top Jets, Browns cover vs. Ravens

WKYC's Ben Axelrod makes his picks against the spread for Week 17 of the 2018 NFL season.

It all comes down to this.

After a 6-7-1 Week 16 -- including two losses by a single point and another by a half-point -- my record for the year stands at 110-106-10 heading into the final week of the regular season.

Riding a four-week losing streak, I should be due for some good fortune. If not, I'll have some ground to make up come playoff time.

Let's get back on track.

All lines made available via Bovada. Cowboys-Giants not available due to lineup uncertainty.

Detroit Lions (+8) vs. Green Bay Packers

Pick: Packers -8

Green Bay hasn't been anything special this season, but its offense still managed to score 44 points last week with nothing to play for. Detroit, meanwhile, has been a complete mess and if there's one thing I can't stand, it's tardiness.

New York Jets (+13.5) vs. New England Patriots

Pick: Patriots -13.5

The Patriots have a shot -- albeit an outside shot -- at getting a bye week, giving them something to play for. That should be enough to motivate them to a blowout victory over a Jets team likely to have packed it in for 2018.

Carolina Panthers +7.5 vs. New Orleans Saints

Pick: Carolina +7.5

With homefield advantage through the NFC Playoffs locked up, the Saints have nothing left to play for. And while the Panthers are also lacking motivation -- and Cam Newton -- 7.5 points are far too many to lay when depending on a team whose only goal is to remain to healthy.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Falcons -1

The Falcons have been the NFL's worst team against the spread this season, netting a 4-10 record on the year. Still, I'll take them over a Tampa Bay team that appears ripe for dysfunction -- and a coaching change -- as the season comes to an end.

Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) vs. Houston Texans

Pick: Texans -7

Pick: With an outside shot at clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC -- or at least the 2-seed and a bye week -- Houston still has plenty to play for. I'll take the Texans to beat up a bad Jaguars team that's returning to Blake Bortles after the failed Cody Kessler era.

Miami Dolphins +4.5 vs. Buffalo Bills

Pick: Dolphins +4.5

Both of these teams are bad and have nothing left to play for aside from draft positioning. I'll take Adam Gase and Ryan Tannehill to go out with a bang -- or at least cover -- in what could be their final games with the Dolphins.

Arizona Cardinals (+13.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Pick: Seahawks -13.5

I don't think there's a team in the NFL as desperate for its season to end as the Cardinals. I'll take Seattle to build on last week's win vs. the Chiefs and enter the playoffs with momentum on its side.

Credit: © Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 10, 2018; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) throws a pass Minnesota Vikings during the first half at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 vs. Denver Broncos

Pick: Chargers -6.5

The Chargers have an outside shot of grabbing the No. 1 seed, while the Broncos are stumbling into the offseason. Yes, I've used this logic a lot this week, but if I hit on at least half of those picks, I should secure a record above .500 for the season.

San Francisco 49ers (+10) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Pick: Rams -10

Fighting for the No. 2 seed, the Rams have plenty left to play for while the 49ers -- OK, you get it. I'm taking the favorite.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs. Washington Redskins

Pick: Redskins +7

Although the Eagles are fighting for their playoff lives, I don't believe in them as much as I believe in the other favorites with plenty to play for this weekend. I think Philadelphia could win this game, but the Redskins should keep it close to at least cover -- unless, of course, Nick Foles hits his postseason form a week early.

Cincinnati Bengals (+14.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: Steelers -14.5

Unless the Steelers get caught scoreboard watching, I don't see any reason why this won't be a three-score Pittsburgh victory.

Cleveland Browns (+6) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Browns +6

I don't know if the Browns win this one outright, but at the very least, it's tough to go against Baker Mayfield. Plus, even though the Ravens are in a "win and they're in" playoff situation, I have a hard time relying on their run-heavy approach to deliver a decisive win.

Credit: Jason Miller
Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield throws a pass in front of Cincinnati Bengals defender Nick Vigil during the second half at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio, on December 23, 2018.

Oakland Raiders (+14) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: Chiefs -14

Remember how I've picked all of those big home favorites with something on the line over teams with nothing left to play for? That's what I'm doing here.

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

Pick: Colts -3.5

In the only "winner gets in" playoff game of the weekend, I'll take the team with the better quarterback (the Colts) over the one whose signal-caller can't seem to stay on the field.

Before You Leave, Check This Out