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Ben Axelrod's Week 17 NFL Picks: Browns cover vs. Bengals, Ravens upset Steelers

WKYC's Ben Axelrod makes his picks against the spread for Week 17 of the 2019 NFL season.
Credit: Ron Schwane/AP
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. celebrates after a 35-yard touchdown during the first half of a game against the Miami Dolphins at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland on Sunday, November 24, 2019.

CLEVELAND — "Win or lose, do it fairly" - Knute Rockne

After posting winning records in three of the previous four weeks, I took an "L," as the kids say, last week, going 5-9-1 in my Week 16 picks. That brings my record for the year to 112-110-4, meaning I can't afford another losing week if I'm going to enter the playoffs with a winning record.

Let's get back on track with my Week 17 picks:

All lines made available via Bovada:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Buccaneers -1

Even with their depleted wide receiving corps, I still think the Bucs are the better team. I'll take Tampa Bay in what essentially amounts to a pick 'em as Jameis Winston locks up this season's passing (and interceptions) title.

Minnesota Vikings (-1) vs. Chicago Bears

Pick: Vikings -1

With their playoff spot secure and no ground to gain, the Vikings don't have anything to play for. Still, I get the sense that Mike Zimmer will want to build some momentum heading into the postseason coming off of last week's loss to Green Bay.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) vs. Cleveland Browns

Pick: Browns -3

Despite their struggles in recent weeks, I still (foolishly) believe in the Browns' talent. I'll take Cleveland to cover by a field goal, although I'm admittedly concerned about the likelihood that this will be Andy Dalton's Cincinnati finale.

Credit: Ross D. Franklin/AP
Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws against the Arizona Cardinals during the second half at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on Sunday, December 15, 2019.

Detroit Lions (+12.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

Pick: Packers -12.5

The Packers can clinch a first-round bye with a win. I don't love laying the 12.5 points, but this feels like an outcome that should be decided before the two teams head into the locker rooms at halftime.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: Chargers +9

Technically, the Chiefs can clinch a bye, but would also need New England to lose to Miami in order to do so. And assuming they knew that won't be happening by the start of the second half, I expect them to pull enough key players for Phillip Rivers to complete his Chargers career with a backdoor cover.

New England Patriots (-16) vs. Miami Dolphins

Pick: Dolphins +16

This runs counterintuitive to my Chiefs pick, so I guess in some way, it could be considered a hedge? (probably not). Anyways, while I think the Patriots will win and will do so convincingly, I still don't think I've seen enough from them in the past few weeks to make me think they should be favored by 16 against anyone -- even Miami.

Carolina Panthers (+13) vs. New Orleans Saints

Pick: Panthers +13

The Saints till have a shot at a bye -- and even home-field advantage throughout the players -- but the chances of either happening is unlikely. As a result, I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans take a conservative approach against a Panthers team that will likely be force-feeding Christian McCaffrey.

Buffalo Bills (-2) vs. New York Jets

Pick: Jets +2

With the Bills already locked into a Wild Card weekend matchup against the Texans, I suspect they'll be resting most of their key players. And as they showed last week against the Steelers, the Jets have more than enough talent to beat up on bad teams.

Credit: AP
El quarterback de los Jets de Nueva York Sam Darnold lanza un pase en la primera mitad del juego de pretemporada ante los Giants de Nueva York, el jueves 8 de agosto de 2019, en East Rutherford, Nueva Jersey. (AP Foto/Michael Owens)

Baltimore Ravens (+2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: Ravens +2

Even with nothing to play for, I still think the Ravens' backups have enough talent to upset this Steelers team. I mean, if there's one franchise capable of fostering a Robert Griffin III comeback, isn't it Baltimore?

Denver Broncos (-3.5) vs. Oakland Raiders

Pick: Raiders +3.5

This is a case of me picking with my heart more than with my head. But assuming Pittsburgh loses, isn't the most fust scenario for Oakland to win its 2019 finale and keep its very, very slim playoff hopes alive?

New York Giants (+4.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Eagles -4.5

The Eagles win and they're not only in -- they're the NFC East champs. I'll take Philadelphia to do just that and even enter Wild Card weekend with a little bit of momentum on its side.

Houston Texans (+3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

Pick: Texans +3.5

Despite being locked into their Wild Card weekend matchup, it appears the Texans will be playing their starters. And if they do that, I don't see any reason why they can't cover against -- if not outright beat -- the Titans, who have sputtered in the last two weeks.

Credit: AP
Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson passes against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 22, 2019, in Carson, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Dallas Cowboys (-11) vs. Washington Redskins

Pick: Redskins +11

What have you seen from this Cowboys team that would make you comfortable laying 11 points with them against anyone? Especially if they see the Eagles are winning, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team crumble in its 2019 finale.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Pick: Colts -4

The Colts don't have anything left to play for except their role in strength of schedule tiebreakers. Still, I'll take them to cover against a Jaguars team that hasn't earned a true quality victory since September.

Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Seahawks +3.5

Seattle may not be as good as its record indicates, but it still has an NFC West division title to play for. And while I'm not necessarily convinced they'll get the job done, I do think the Seahawks should play well enough at home in primetime to cover the 3.5-point spread.

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