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Ben Axelrod's Week 4 NFL picks: Bengals beat Jaguars, Pats hang with Bucs

3News' Ben Axelrod makes his picks against the spread for every game in Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season.

CLEVELAND — After starting the first two weeks of the season essentially even, Week 3 marked my best week of the season with an 11-5 record bringing my season total to 26-21-1. Let's keep on winning with my Week 4 picks.

RELATED: More NFL coverage from WKYC

All lines made available via VegasInsider.com

Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Bengals -7.5

Fading Urban Meyer has been successful to this point, so why stop now? I expect a big showing from Joe Burrow and the early Rookie of the Year frontrunner Ja'Marr Chase in primetime.

Atlanta Falcons (+1) vs. Washington Football Team

Pick: Falcons +1

As down as I've been on Atlanta, I haven't seen anything from Washington this season that makes me think that the Football Team should be a road favorite.

Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Detroit Lions

Pick: Bears -3

I'm not sure who's playing quarterback for the Bears this week, but it's hard to imagine Chicago's offense playing worse than it did last week. While the Lions have played better than expected, last week's heartbreaking loss to the Ravens might have taken the wind out of Detroit's sails.

New York Jets (+7) vs. Tennessee Titans

Pick: Titans -7

As bad as Jacksonville has been, the Jets might be the early frontrunner for the worst team in the league. This feels like a spot for the Titans to ride Derrick Henry to a comfortable road win.

Minnesota Vikings (+2) vs. Cleveland Browns

Pick: Browns -2

With a line this low, I think you just have to pick the team who you think is going to win. It's hard for me to envision the Browns walking away from Kevin Stefanski's Minnesota homecoming without a win.

Miami Dolphins (-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Pick: Dolphins -2

The Dolphins are better than their 1-2 record indicates and Jacoby Brissett might actually be an upgrade at quarterback. Indianapolis, meanwhile, seems like a team whose season is on the brink of falling apart.

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

Pick: Panthers +4.5

Through the first three weeks of the season, the Panthers are No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA. Even without Christian McCaffrey, I think Carolina has the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Cowboys coming off a short week.

New Orleans Saints (-7.5) vs. New York Giants

Pick: Giants +7.5

Perhaps not surprising considering their quarterback, the Saints look like this season's Jekyll & Hyde team. If nothing else, the Giants should have enough offensive talent to cover a 7.5-point spread.

Philadelphia Eagles (+7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: Chiefs -7

With the Chiefs coming off two disappointing losses and the Eagles coming off a short week, this looks like a clear bounce-back spot for Kansas City. At the end of the day, I just don't think Philadelphia has to firepower to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes.

Buffalo Bills (-16.5) vs. Houston Texans

Pick: Texans +16.5

Four weeks in, this is already the biggest line of the season. On principle, I'm going to take the points and hope that Buffalo doesn't put together a third straight blowout.

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Rams -4.5

The Cardinals might be 3-0, but their resume is lacking in quality wins. Meanwhile, the Rams very well just might be the best team in the league.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Pick: Seahawks +3

For as talented as both of these two teams are, both have glaring flaws. I'll take Seattle and the points in what feels like a divisional toss-up.

Denver Broncos (-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Broncos -1

It seems like 0-3 would be a more representative record for the Ravens than their real record, 2-1, is. With Teddy Bridgewater having brought stability at quarterback, Denver has quietly been one of the league's most impressive teams -- even if their three wins have come against arguably the league's three worst teams.

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: Packers -6.5

Ben Roethlisberger is done -- like really done. Unless that changes between now and Sunday, it's hard for me to imagine the Steelers keeping pace with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.

New England Patriots (+6.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Patriots +6.5

Considering the familiarity between the two teams, there's a good chance this game will be close. If nothing else, the 6.5 points for Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense are just too many to pass on in a home game for New England.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Pick: Raiders +3.5

For whatever reason, I can't get past the half-point here. This feels like another divisional toss-up between two relatively evenly matched teams.

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