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Tropical development becoming more likely in the Caribbean

An area of low pressure area could form in the western Caribbean by this weekend. Early forecast take it northwest into Mexico, but we'll watch it.

NEW ORLEANS — A tropical wave in the Caribbean is moving west northwest through the Caribbean. By this weekend it could become a tropical depression in the northwest Caribbean. 

There are multiple cold fronts headed into the Gulf of Mexico through early next week and that means high pressure will setup over the area. This should steer the system northwest/west into Mexico, but those in south Florida should monitor this system as heavy rainfall could be a problem. 

Beyond this system we will likely see the tropics remain active as we head into October. Multiple tropical waves will need to monitored as they move into Caribbean. 

We'll also be watching for the Central American Gyre to develop again. A Central American Gyre is slow spinning wind pattern that rotates counterclockwise over Central America. The spin from the gyre tends to create an area of low pressure. Sometimes the low pressure area can become more organized and grow into a tropical system, especially if a tropical disturbance from Africa is injected into it or a non-tropical weather system happens to stall nearby. The same feature produced Cristobal early this year and usually happens in June and October.

We'll keep an eye on this long term as models show the possibility of more systems trying to develop through the first couple weeks of October. The next name is Gamma.

HURRICANE CENTER: Latest Tracks, Models & Radar - Click here.

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