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Tropical development in southern Atlantic possible this week

Invest 95 now has a 70% chance for development in the next few days in the central Atlantic

NEW ORLEANS — We are tracking a tropical wave (Invest 95L) way out in the middle of the Atlantic between Africa and the Windward Islands. It continues to get better organized and could become a tropical depression or storm in the next day or two as it moves to the west. NHC is giving it a high chance to develop. However, it will have unfavorable conditions to develop, or sustain its strength, by the end of the week as it runs into stronger wind shear by the Windward islands. 

There is another tropical wave just off the coast of Africa. Forecast models show this could develop into a low over the next few days in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics remain quiet.

There is a pattern called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is a fluctuation of favorable and unfavorable states for tropical development across the globe. This favorable/unfavorable pattern shifts every few weeks. For the next few weeks, the more favorable region is over the Pacific, but toward the end of August and into September, this pattern will shift over the Atlantic. That doesn't mean you won't see ANY development over a particular basin when in an "unfavorable" phase, but when in "favorable" it is usually when you see multiple storms at a time and also when you see the chance for more powerful storms. So we'll be more favorable as we near the peak of the season. Stay tuned...

HURRICANE CENTER: Latest track, radar, and spaghetti models

RELATED: What is a Potential Tropical Cyclone?

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HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST TO BECOME "EXTREMELY ACTIVE"

NOAA released their August hurricane season forecast update and calls for an 'Extremely Active' season. The forecast calls for 19-25 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major. These numbers already include the nine named storms and two hurricanes. 

The reasons for the extremely active season: 

• Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean

• Enhanced West African Monsoon (rainy) season - causes tropical waves

• Possible La Nina forming in the months ahead

• Reduced wind shear over the Atlantic Basin - allows storms to develop

Now is the time to be prepared. Typically, the season becomes more active in the next few weeks with the peak on September 10th. 

The expert forecasters at Colorado State have issued their August update on the 2020 hurricane season. Their forecast now calls for 24 named storms (including the nine already), 12 hurricanes (including the two already) and five major hurricanes. 

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That's an increase of four named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane.

Should there be 24 named storms, they would run out of names and have to go to the Greek alphabet, like they did in 2005. 

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Credit: Payton Malone

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