CLEVELAND — With a 24-22 loss to the Green Bay Packers on Saturday, the Cleveland Browns fell to 7-8 on the season, marking the first time under head coach Kevin Stefanski they've been under .500 after Week 1.
Yet despite suffering its second straight loss, the Browns remain alive in the AFC playoff picture -- although at this point, they need some help.
According to advanced analytics website Five Thirty-Eight, Cleveland currently has an 11 percent chance of making the postseason. Virtually all of the Browns' chances of clinching a playoff spot for a second consecutive season rely on them winning the AFC North, with Five Thirty-Eight giving Cleveland less than a one percent chance of earning a Wild Card spot.
With two weeks left in the 2021 season, the Browns' path to the playoffs has come into focus. With that in mind, let's take a look at where Cleveland stands in the AFC playoff picture heading into their Week 17 matchup vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.
AFC North
AFC North standings
- Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)
- Cleveland Browns (7-8)
The bad news for the Browns is that they enter the final two weeks of the regular season trailing the Cincinnati Bengals by two games in the AFC North. The good news for Cleveland is that with some likely help in Week 17, the Browns would find themselves hosting the Bengals in a winner-takes-all matchup at FirstEnergy Stadium on Jan. 9.
After beating the Baltimore Ravens 41-21 on Sunday, Cincinnati will host the 11-4 Kansas City Chiefs, who will be motivated to secure a first-place finish in the AFC. Currently, the Chiefs are listed as a five-point favorite over the Bengals, who would clinch the AFC North with an upset victory vs. Kansas City.
Meanwhile, Cleveland finds itself a 3-point favorite in its road matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football. If the Browns beat the Steelers, the Chiefs beat the Bengals and the Ravens lose one of their two remaining matchups -- vs. the Los Angeles Rams and vs. the Steelers -- then Cleveland's Week 18 game against Cincinnati will determine the division winner.
Simple enough, right?
AFC Wild Card
Through 16 weeks, here's how the AFC Playoff picture looks:
Division Leaders
- Kansas City Chiefs (11-4)
- Tennessee Titans (10-5)
- Cincinnati Bengals (9-6)
- Buffalo Bills (9-6)
Wild Card
- Indianapolis Colts (9-6)
- New England Patriots (9-6)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-7)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-7)
- Las Vegas Raiders (8-7)
- Miami Dolphins (7-7)*
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1)
- Cleveland Browns (7-8)
- Denver Broncos (7-8)
*Faces the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football.
Cleveland hasn't officially been eliminated from Wild Card contention, but it might as well have been. According to Five Thirty-Eight, the Browns have just a 0.2 percent chance of earning one of the AFC's three Wild Card spots.
Entering Week 17, at least 10 teams in the AFC have records better than Cleveland's, with the New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders each possessing head-to-head tiebreakers vs. the Browns. In all likelihood, as long as it beats Pittsburgh, Cleveland won't officially be eliminated from Wild Card contention until Week 18. But make no mistake, the Browns' path to the playoffs very much runs through the AFC North.
What's ahead?
Here are the games left on the Browns' 2021 schedule:
- Jan. 3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Jan. 9 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
With two games remaining in the 2021 season, Cleveland has no margin for error, as its next loss or tie will officially eliminate it from postseason contention. From there, the Browns will need some help, especially in Week 17, if they're going to have a shot to make their return to postseason play.